Martin Atkins (mart) wrote in lj_dev,
Martin Atkins

lj_dev is dying

It is official! Sourceforge confirms: lj_dev is dying.

One more crippling bombshell hit the already-beleaguered LiveJournal Development community when OSDN confirmed that LiveJournal Development interest has dropped yet again, now down to less than a fraction of 1 percent of all developers. Coming on the heels of a recent Microsoft survey which plainly states that lj_dev has lost more mindshare, this news serves to reinforce what we've known for many months: lj_dev is collapsing in complete disarray, as fittingly exemplifed by the lack of activity on the official LiveJournal bug tracker.

You don't need to be Tatsuya Ishida to predict the future of the LiveJournal Open-source Developer community — it's plain to see: lj_dev faces a bleak future. In fact there won't be any future at all for LiveJournal the open source project because lj_dev is dying. Things are looking very bad for the few remaining developers not on payroll. Red ink flows like a river of blood.

The translation system is the most endangered of them all, having lost 93% of its core developers. The sudden and unpleasant departures of long-time translation system contributors only serve to underscore the point more clearly. There can no longer be any doubt.

Let's keep to the facts and look at the numbers: The LiveJournal stats system states that there are roughly 2000 users of the “Zilla” bugtracker. How much activity has there been on Zilla in the past few weeks? Five! This is a ratio of 400:1. Therefore there are about five active developers still monitoring and contributing to LiveJournal. Since seven of these are Danga's own staff, this means that there is a two-developer discrepancy — a clear pointer to the death of LiveJournal development as it was known only a year ago.

All major surveys show that LiveJournal has steadily declined in developer mindshare. LiveJournal's open source project is very sick and its long-term survival prospects are very dim. If it is to survive at all it will be among hard-core geeks with no life, and we all know how few of those there are on LiveJournal. lj_dev continues to decay. Nothing short of a miracle could save it at this point in time.

The writing is on the wall: lj_dev is dying.


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